Why are people more confident than they should be? Is it good to be 'overconfident'? | Why is the suicide of working women increasing in Japan?

Why are people more confident than they should be? Is it good to be 'overconfident'?


Sometimes we trust ourselves more than we need or should. We are not ready to accept that we may not be bad at something. Imagine suddenly encountering a leopard or a wild bear on the road and having to deal with it. You have no weapons/weapons in your hands. You face life unarmed. Who will win this battle? Bear/leopard or you? How likely are you to win if you imagine yourself fighting a crocodile, cobra or chile unarmed?


In a survey of more than 1,700 people in the United States in 2021, conducted by the British international online research and data analysis company YouGov, less than 6 percent of the participants answered that they would win if they fought a bear with their bare hands. There were a few more who showed confidence that they would win the fight with the crocodile. In a fight with a cobra, 23 percent of men imagined that they would defeat the cobra. The proportion of those who believed that Chile would be defeated was 38 percent. Did some of the contestants have great fighting skills like Tarzan?



Or have they become unbelievably overconfident? Can a flying plane be landed without any mishap in case of an emergency? Or the death of everyone on the plane? Kayla Jordan, a researcher at the University of Waikato in New Zealand, asked the participants in a recent study.


In this too, the level of over confidence of the participants was found to be significant. More than half of the participants in the survey said that the probability of a successful landing of the plane was 20 percent. After watching a 3-minute video of a trained pilot landing a plane in an emergency, their confidence level increased even more. The probability of making a safe landing of the plane increased to 30 percent during difficult times. A quarter said their chances of saving the plane were up to 60 percent.


Landing a plane requires training, high skill and expertise. Among those who had no experience or skill, there were more people who thought that they would be able to land the plane safely if they suddenly had to control the plane without anyone's help. The 3-minute video was shot from the rear of the cockpit. There was no sound in the background. The video viewer does not see what the pilot is doing with his hands. A pilot even called the video useless.




There are some examples of successful landing of a plane when the pilot suddenly fell ill or fell unconscious in the cockpit. One such incident happened in May 2022 in Florida. However, that passenger in that incident was the flight director. He landed the plane with the help of air traffic control. Experienced pilots say that there is a 10 to 15 percent chance of a common man landing the plane without anyone's help. This is significantly less than what was reported by survey participants in New Zealand.


Overconfidence is not only seen in life and death situations. In another poll, Yugab was asked about the chances of winning against 23-time Grand Slam winner Serena Williams if she plays her best. Seven percent of participants said they could beat Serena. In men, this ratio was 12 percent.


Another place where people overestimate their abilities is driving. In the most cited study since 1981 in the US, 93 percent of drivers thought their driving forgiveness was better than average. This kind of logical discrimination is called the Lake Wobagan effect. Simply put, it is the delusion of thinking of yourself as the best or above average.


On the contrary, some people may admit that they don't know, I can't do this. However, this also leads to overclaiming. Have you heard the word Coleraine? Parallax plate? Both are scientific terms. A NIT (Neuroimaging, Emotions and Appetite Testing) study found that when asked if they had heard of these two words, many participants answered yes.


A little overconfidence is good. Every parent wants their children to believe in themselves and instill in them the belief that they can overcome new things or situations by themselves. Success does not come without taking risks and stretching yourself beyond what you believe is your ability or strength. For some to be above average, others must be average or below average. However, none of us likes to be average or below average.


When you show confidence in yourself, you inspire others to be confident as well. When you confidently put your opinion in front of others, others can believe what you say, they believe in you. However, it also has a contradictory element. Sometimes, having this thinking, people actually believe that they are afraid of their own abilities or that they can do more than they are capable of. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect. Some say it is not so. However, this is true for some. When singing alone at home, 'O ho! Have you ever thought that I have been singing so well?


Sometimes you may have thought that you are too lazy to play guitar or piano or any other musical instrument. Where does such overconfidence come from? One of the reasons for this is the personality type yes yes The same is true in office or work. Some people think that there is no one else who knows and listens as well as me, who can work as well as they do. A person's gender also affects it. Whether it's fighting a bear or thinking you're going to beat Serena Williams in tennis, a survey shows that on average, men have more overconfidence than women. The body structure of men and women is completely different. The idea that men are physically stronger than women is widespread in our society. However, men are found to be more confident than women even in situations where physical force is not required, such as an emergency landing of an airplane.

Overconfidence comes not only from who we are but also from what we do. After watching the video of the cockpit, people had increased over confidence. Based on the experience gained from watching the video, over confidence increased in people. While watching the video of the pilot making the plane's emergency landing (albeit unclear), the audience imagined doing it themselves. And their confidence increased even more.


Over confidence or more confidence than needed sometimes gets us into trouble. Kayla Jordan said in an interview with BBC's All in the Mind that we should be careful not to fall into such a situation. She said that they found that their confidence increases by about 28 percent just by watching a short video. In fact, you may not be able to land the plane safely. However, if you think that I can do it, it is better to give the opportunity to some other experts on the plane. The interest of all other passengers is also in this.


We have been brought up in a culture where if we put our mind to it, we can do the impossible. You must have heard many times from someone who is older than you, "God says that you are brave, you will never stop showing courage". Some of them do not even hesitate to say 'don't eat charesh, don't eat haresh'. Believing in yourself is not a bad thing, but too much is bad. Extremism is not good for anything. We can't imagine the self-doubt, the thought that I can't do it.


But it's not good to think that I can do the work that I can't do in a pinch. Therefore, Jordan says that it is equally important to evaluate one's abilities honestly. He suggests that if you ever encounter a bear, instead of fighting to see if I can defeat it, it is better not to let the situation arise where you have to fight as much as possible. If Serena Williams herself comes and challenges you in tennis, do you have the illusion that she can beat you or do you humbly say 'I don't play'? Say it in the comments below!


Why is the suicide of working women increasing in Japan?


Suicide has increased among working women in Japan. According to government data, the rate of suicide has increased especially among working women since the start of the epidemic compared to before the start of the corona virus epidemic.



According to the statistics of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the suicide rate has increased by 30 percent in 2021 compared to the five-year average from 2015 to 2019. There are 1,696 working women who committed suicide last year. But this is less than the year 2020 when the corona virus infection started. In that year, 1 thousand 706 women of this group were killed.


According to the ministry, most of the women were worried about losing their jobs because they were involved in irregular jobs or their income would decrease during the epidemic.


21 thousand 7 people have committed suicide throughout the year 2021. This is 0.4 percent less than the previous year. The number of men who committed suicide during that period is 13 thousand 939. Along with this, for the 12th year in a row, suicide among men has decreased. But female suicide has increased to 7 thousand 68 for the second year in a row.


According to the white paper, the average number of working women who committed suicide between 2015 and 2019 is 1,320. The number of 2021 is 28 percent more than this. According to the age group, suicide has increased by 64 percent between the ages of 20 and 29. An increase of 28 percent has been observed in the suicide of working women in the age group of 50 to 59 years.

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